Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
